Here is How Tanzania’s Political Unrest Could Disrupt Kenya’s Economy

Tanzania’s recent political instability has sparked concern across the East African region, with analysts warning that Kenya’s economy could take a significant hit if the turmoil persists. The unrest began after the country’s general election on October 29, 2025, which saw widespread protests erupt in major cities such as Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, and Arusha. Demonstrators, demanding electoral reforms, clashed with police, leading to property destruction and loss of lives.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner with 98% of the vote and sworn in on November 3 in a ceremony attended by several heads of state. Kenya was represented by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. In her first address after being sworn in, Suluhu condemned the violence, saying, “Our responsibility is to build our today and to be better than our yesterday. I beg that we continue protecting our values of unity and collaboration.”

How Could Tanzania’s Unrest Affect Kenya’s Economy?

Economic analyst David Namu Kariuki, the finance and administration director at Assured Management Solutions Ltd, cautioned that the instability could deeply impact Kenya. Tanzania is one of Kenya’s top trading partners within the East African Community (EAC), and disruptions could affect the movement of goods through the Namanga and Taveta border points. Kariuki explained that cross-border trade delays would cause logistical challenges for both nations.

He added that instability could also damage the tourism and hospitality industry, as travelers cancel joint safaris and tours. “The tourism and hospitality industry will be greatly affected, leading to cancellation of cross-border safari and tours. Having worked for Sarova Hotels, I know the effects on the ground,” he said.

Are Kenya and Tanzania Economically Interdependent?

According to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Kenya and Tanzania have developed strong economic ties in agriculture, manufacturing, and raw materials. In 2024, Kenya’s exports to Tanzania reached KSh 67.2 billion, while imports were KSh 58.72 billion, reflecting a growing interdependence between the two economies.

Kariuki warned that prolonged unrest would disrupt the trade of agricultural goods such as grains, vegetables, and livestock. Kenyan journalist Ricky Kibet, who reported from the Namanga border, noted, “Over 80 trucks of onions from Tanzania enter the Kenyan market every day.”

Despite government assurances that normal business activities would resume, heavy military presence remains in Dar es Salaam. Observers have also raised questions about the credibility of the Tanzanian election, citing internet shutdowns that limited monitoring. Opposition sources claimed that at least 700 people were killed during the protests, underscoring the gravity of the crisis.

If the situation does not stabilize soon, Kenya’s economy, closely tied to Tanzania’s through trade and tourism, could face significant short-term disruptions, with ripple effects across the wider East African region.

By Lucky Anyanje